auctions

What is the impact of public auctions on the circulation of Italian contemporary art?

To assess this question, we began by examining the presence of Italian artists—of all eras—over the past 25 years in the annual Artprice Top 100 ranking by turnover (data provided by Artprice for this study). This observation offers an initial indication of the decreasing presence of our artists under the auction hammer: there were 10 in 2000, and this number dropped to 4 in 2024. A similar trend is observed for German artists, who fell from 9 to 5, and for French artists, who went from 30 to 13—never falling below 10 but still tracing a downward curve. Although the trends are not uniform, they do point to a general decline over time. In an increasingly global art market, this highlights the dwindling presence of artworks from Old Europe and the rising demand for both historical and emerging Chinese artists, whose representation in the ranking grew from 1 in 2000 to 17 in 2021. At the same time, there remains strong and growing demand for American artists (up from 15 to 24) and the emergence of new buyers interested in Indian and Japanese art.

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The Italian artists

It is not common to find Italian artists—from all eras of art history—in the Artprice Top 100 ranking by auction turnover between 2020 and 2024. Around ten names recur in the list—the most sought-after masters being Modigliani, who appears in the Top 100 in 20 out of the 25 years analyzed; Fontana, in 24 years; de Chirico, in 11; Manzoni, in 9; Marini and Boetti, in 8; Morandi and Burri, in 5; Cattelan, in 3. Among the rare appearances are the great Old Masters: from Leonardo (with the exceptional $450 million turnover in 2017), to Botticelli (with standout sales of $92.2 million in 2021 and $93.9 million in 2022), to Raphael ($47.9 million in 2009 and again in 2012), and also Canaletto, Guardi, Carracci, and Tiepolo. The only living Italians to appear are Michelangelo Pistoletto, Rudolf Stingel, and Maurizio Cattelan. No Italian female artists have yet entered the Top 100.

In the past two years, the number of Italian artists featured has diminished, dropping from a peak of 10 in 2000 to 9 in 2001, 8 in 2003 and 2004, and 7 in 2015, remaining below 6 since 2016. The most recent two years are notable for the scarce presence of Italians in the Top 100 auction list: only Modigliani and Boetti in 2023, and in 2024 Fontana, Boetti, Titian, and Salvo—the latter appearing for the first time in the Top 100 by auction revenue.
When analyzing the total turnover within the Artprice Top 100, the share of Italian art has consistently remained below 10% (with the exception of 2017), and even fell below 1% in 2023.

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By narrowing our sample and focusing on the auction performance of Italian, French, and German artists from the 20th century to the present, we analyze turnover, highest price, number of artists, lots sold, and average annual price from 2000 to 2024. What emerges?

Turnover

As already observed for art from all eras, the auction turnover of Italian artists has declined alongside broader market downturns. French and German artists have also seen drops. However, what stands out is that the values for Italian artists have consistently been lower than those of the other two countries under review. In 2020, during the pandemic, there was a sharp decline across the board, but France still maintained turnover above €500 million (–42% compared to 2019), Germany above €410 million (–22%), while Italy fell to just €173 million in annual auction turnover for 20th-century artists (–57%).

A recovery occurred in 2022 for France and Germany, reaching €963 million (+91%) and €838 million (+105%) respectively, whereas Italy only reached €309 million (+79%).
This means that for Italian artists, both the growth percentages and—more importantly—the absolute values remain significantly lower.

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Number of artists and works, and average price

Across all the countries analyzed, there has been a steady increase over the past 25 years in the number of artists reaching the auction market: +209.3% for Italians, +115.4% for the French, and +92.7% for the Germans. For Italians, the number rose from 1,266 in 2000 to 3,916 in 2024. For the French, from 2,750 to 5,926; for the Germans, from 2,323 to 4,477. This shows that the supply has grown, but the values for Italian artists remain lower due to several factors: international recognition is concentrated on just a few names; there are restrictions on the international circulation of works over 70 years old or those already subject to national heritage laws; and Italian artists have less presence in major international museums and top-tier galleries.

Comparing the number of 20th-century artworks that went to auction, we find that the supply and sales of works by French artists were significantly higher than those of their German and Italian counterparts—a trend that also aligns with the higher turnover figures.

The art market undoubtedly follows the broader trends of the international economy and is affected by geopolitical crises, but some countries are more resilient. For example, Germany’s average price rose from $22,021 in 2019 to $32,431 in 2022, post-COVID. Italian and French artists, by contrast, have not managed to recover to the same extent.

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Top Lot

For Italian artists, the standout is Amedeo Modigliani with Nu couché (Reclining Nude), estimated between $100 and $120 million, which was sold for the record-breaking price of $170,405,000 at Christie’s in November 2015. The second-highest price in the period analyzed is also by Modigliani, with Nu couché (sur le côté gauche) from 1917, sold for $157,159,000 at Sotheby’s in New York on May 14, 2018.

For French artists, the top result goes to Henri Matisse with Odalisque couchée aux magnolias (1923), sold for $80,750,000 in 2018 at Christie’s New York.

For German artists, according to Artprice, the record belongs to Lucian Freud with Large Interior, W11 (after Watteau) from 1981–83, which sold for $86,265,000 in 2022. However, in our view, Freud—though born in Germany—spent his entire life in the UK and should be considered part of British art. Therefore, the highest-selling German artist over the past 25 years is Max Beckmann, with Hölle der Vögel (1937–38), sold for $45,830,765 in 2017 at Christie’s in London.

In all three countries, the highest auction prices were achieved by modern—not postwar—artists.

Looking specifically at 2024, the top lot is by Lucio Fontana with Concetto Spaziale. La fine di Dio (1964), sold for $22,969,800 at Sotheby’s New York. The second-highest Italian lot is Comedian by Maurizio Cattelan—the famous banana—sold for $6.2 million at Sotheby’s New York, making him the only living Italian contemporary artist to reach such values.

Among German artists, several names stand out in 2024: Gerhard Richter (top lot of $11.3 million), Georg Baselitz ($1.7 million), and Anselm Kiefer ($1.3 million).

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After having outlined the trends in Italian art from all historical periods, and then those of 20th-century art, we now focus on the core subject of our study: the art produced by artists born after 1960—those who likely began creating work after 1980—to examine how their presence at auction has diminished.

The analysis shows that the turnover for Italian artists has been lower than that of German artists as early as 2005, and lower than that of French artists since 2017. From that year onward, Italian contemporary art at auction has experienced a slow decline, with only a slight recovery observed in 2024.

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The greater dynamism of the French art market has been evident since 2013, with peaks in turnover in 2021, while the turnover of the German art market appears definitely more stable and consistent than that of the Italian one.

The number of works offered at auction is also steadily increasing for French artists, confirming the solid performance of the market. Meanwhile, the comparison between Italian and German female and male artists—who are moving at a fairly similar pace—highlights the different valuation of German works, which are more appreciated at auction.

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Indeed, the analysis of the average auction price for artists born after 1960 confirms a slow downward trend for Italians since 2017, compared to the peaks recorded in 2004, 2010, and 2016, and in contrast to the solid average values achieved by German artists in 2006, 2007, 2014, and 2017. In any case, the latter have shown greater resilience. The prices of works by French artists have followed a more consistent trend over the past 25 years, although they remain generally on the lower end.

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It is interesting to note that in Artprice’s Top 20 list by turnover, there are several artists who are frequently traded at auction but do not enjoy the same level of visibility in museums, biennials, major galleries, or prestigious awards.

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A Still Difficult Comparison 

The price gap between 20th-century Italian art and post-1960 art is clear, but it is gradually narrowing due to a contraction in the supply of Modern and Post-War art. Fewer high-quality works are reaching the auction market, partly due to possible museum acquisitions and partly because of the restrictions imposed by Italian law on the circulation of artworks 70 years after their creation, as well as the end of the Italian Sales—auctions once dedicated to Italian artists by major houses like Christie’s and Sotheby’s in London.

It is worth recalling that in 2018, Sotheby’s discontinued the format, integrating works by Italian artists into its “Post-War and Contemporary Art” sales, while Christie’s moved the Italian art appointment to Paris in October with a sale titled Thinking Italian. Nevertheless, from 2019 to the present, the presence of Italian artists in the most important European auction sessions has significantly declined.

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Turnover Comparison

When we analyze turnover, it becomes even more difficult to compare the market performance of the great masters of the 20th century with that of artists born after 1960. The values narrow not only for Italian artists, but also for the French. In contrast, German artists once again demonstrate greater stability and visibility in the market.

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